Wolves vs Liverpool: Bottom vs Brilliant — Is There Any Hope at Molineux?

Let’s not dress this up. Wolves are bottom of the Premier League with 13 points from 29 games. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 100% probability of relegation. They went 19 games without a win to start the season — the second-longest winless run in top-flight history. They’ve scored 20 goals all campaign. Twenty.

And now Liverpool (5th, 48 points) roll into Molineux on Tuesday night (20:15 GMT, TNT Sports) having just smashed West Ham 5-2 at Anfield, with Hugo Ekitike looking like the signing of the season and Virgil van Dijk heading in corners for fun.

So yeah. This should be straightforward. Should be.

But Wolves beat Aston Villa 2-0 four days ago. Football doesn’t care about your predictions.

Wolves: Rock Bottom, But Not Quite Broken

Rob Edwards came back from Middlesbrough in November after Vítor Pereira was sacked (8 losses in 10 league games — brutal) and has at least given Wolves some dignity. The 2-2 comeback against Arsenal from 2-0 down showed spirit. The 2-0 Villa win showed they can still produce a proper performance when the planets align.

The summer gutting was the root cause. Matheus Cunha sold to Man United. Rayan Ait-Nouri gone. Not enough brought in to replace them. Tolu Arokodare leads the line, Adam Armstrong arrived as the headline signing, and the rest is basically vibes and hard work.

The stats are grim. 20 goals in 29 games (0.69 per match). An xG of just 17.2, meaning they’re slightly overperforming — which won’t last. They went 28 games without a clean sheet before the Villa result. José Sá’s distribution under pressure has been poor all season.

The one positive: defensively, their xGA (27.7) is 15th in the league. Not catastrophic. The problem is they concede roughly an extra goal every 1.5 games beyond what the data predicts. Focus and concentration have been the issue, not necessarily the tactical structure.

📊 The Number: Wolves’ 2-0 over Villa took them past Derby County’s all-time Premier League low of 11 points. At Molineux, they celebrated like they’d won a cup final. That tells you everything about where this season has gone.

Liverpool: From Carnage to Top-Four Push

Liverpool’s season is two completely different stories. The summer overhaul — selling Trent Alexander-Arnold to Madrid, shipping out Núñez and Díaz, bringing in Hugo Ekitike (£69m), Alexander Isak (£125m British record from Newcastle), and Florian Wirtz — was supposed to be exciting. Instead it was chaos. Nine losses in 12 games across all competitions. Arne Slot’s job was under genuine threat.

Then it clicked. Four wins in five league games. 5-2 against West Ham with three first-half goals from corners — something only Man United had previously managed in the Premier League. Ekitike scored and set up two more. The lad now has 16 goals and 6 assists in all competitions — 20 goal involvements, bettered only by Haaland across the division.

Wirtz has found his feet after a slow start adapting to English football’s pace. He and Ekitike have combined for six goals — the most by two players aged 23 or under for Liverpool since Owen and Gerrard in 2002-03. Van Dijk keeps heading in corners (four headed goals in recent weeks from Szoboszlai’s delivery). And the set-piece revolution is real — Liverpool went from the worst set-piece differential in the league to the best.

Slot was blunt about it: “Earlier this season, I said Liverpool had no chance of top four if we didn’t improve from set-pieces.” Message received.

The Tactical Mismatch

Edwards will park the bus. 3-4-2-1, deep and compact, Arokodare as an outlet, hoping for a set-piece or counter-attack moment. It nearly worked against Arsenal.

The problem? Liverpool’s biggest recent improvement is exactly the area where Wolves are weakest: set-pieces. Liverpool have scored from corners in four consecutive matches. Van Dijk, Konaté, and Mac Allister all present aerial nightmares. Against a Wolves team that went 28 games without a clean sheet before last week, that’s a recipe for trouble.

Add the pressing intensity — Ekitike’s off-ball work has improved massively under Slot — and the pace differential, and Wolves are going to spend long stretches under siege. If Sá’s distribution coughs up the ball in his own third (it’s happened multiple times this season), Molineux could turn very quiet very quickly.

The Odds

Market	Odds	Implied Prob
Wolves Win	6.25	~16%
Draw	5.00	~20%
Liverpool Win	1.42	~70%
Over 2.5 Goals	1.75	~57%
Under 2.5 Goals	2.10	~48%
BTTS No	1.62	~62%
Liverpool -1.5 AH	1.90	~53%
Liverpool Win to Nil	2.00	~50%

Liverpool have won 18 of the last 23 meetings between these sides. Even at Molineux, Wolves have struggled historically against the Reds. The BTTS No at 1.62 looks solid given Wolves’ 0.69 goals per game.

Projected Lineups

Wolves (3-4-2-1): Sá / Mosquera, Bueno, Toti / Hugo Bueno, João Gomes, Ángel Gomes, Doherty / Bellegarde, Mateus Mane / Arokodare Bench: Armstrong, R. Gomes, Sarabia. OUT: Araújo (knee), Kalajdzic (ACL), Traore (thigh).

Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson / Bradley, Konaté, Van Dijk, Robertson / Gravenberch, Mac Allister / Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo / Ekitike Bench: Isak, Jones, Szoboszlai. OUT: Chiesa (hamstring), Elliott (loan — Villa).

Our Best Bets

Main Pick: Liverpool -1.5 AH @ 1.90 Liverpool have won by 2+ in three of their last five league games (4-1, 5-2, 2-0). Wolves have conceded 2+ in 19 of 28 matches. The quality gap is enormous and the set-piece advantage alone should produce multiple goals.

Value Play: Liverpool Win to Nil @ 2.00 Wolves average 0.69 goals per game. Liverpool’s defence has tightened significantly in 2026. With Van Dijk marshalling and Alisson behind him, a clean sheet is entirely plausible.

Punt: Ekitike 2+ Goals @ 3.50 Five goals in his last three PL starts. 16 in all comps. Facing a defence that concedes more than any xGA model predicts. If there’s a night for a brace, it’s this one.

Our Call: Wolves 0–2 Liverpool. Van Dijk heads home from a corner before half-time. Ekitike seals it in the second half. Wolves show fight for 60 minutes before the gap tells.

What’s Next

For Liverpool, March is massive. Tottenham at Anfield follows on March 15, Brighton away on March 21. Maintain this trajectory and top four — plus Champions League football — is firmly within reach.

For Wolves, it’s about dignity, development, and Championship preparation. Arokodare, Mosquera, Hugo Bueno — assets for the future. But Tuesday will test whether the Villa win was a turning point or just one beautiful evening against a generous opponent.