USA vs Paraguay Prediction & Odds – World Cup 2026 Group D Opener

📅 Kickoff	Friday June 12 – 02:00 BST / 02:00 Irish time (Saturday morning)
🏟️ Venue	SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Los Angeles
🔮 Our Pick	USA 2–1 PAR
💰 Best Market	Both Teams to Score @ ~1.85

Late night football – 02:00 Irish time on Saturday morning. The Stars and Stripes open their home World Cup campaign at SoFi Stadium against a PAR side making their first tournament appearance since 2010. On paper this looks straightforward. The market says otherwise: Pochettino’s side are priced at 1.90–2.00 – essentially evens – against Alfaro’s disciplined counter-attacking outfit. Christian Pulisic leads the attack. Miguel Almirón provides the danger from the other side. This will not be a comfortable evening for the co-hosts.

What Are the Latest Odds for USA vs Paraguay?

Market	Odds	Probability
USA Win	1.90 – 2.00	48–52%
Draw	3.30 – 3.50	28–29%
PAR Win	3.75 – 4.10	23–24%
Both Teams to Score – Yes	~1.85	54–56%
Over 2.5 Goals	~1.90	~50%

Odds correct June 8–10, 2026.

The Both Teams to Score market at ~1.85 is the standout. Pochettino’s side have conceded in most of their recent warm-up matches – and Alfaro’s counter-attacking system through Almirón specifically targets the spaces that adventurous fullbacks leave. A 54–56% BTTS probability at 1.85 is genuine value.

Worth comparing prices before you place – the gap between bookmakers on a fixture priced this close to evens adds up quickly. Our football betting insights page shows where the value gaps are across Irish licensed operators for the Group D opener.

Where to Place Your Bets in Ireland

On a fixture priced this close to evens, the bookmaker you choose makes a real difference. The gap between 1.85 and 1.92 on Both Teams to Score is €3.50 on a €50 stake – and that gap exists across Irish licensed operators right now. We compared every option and found those offering the sharpest Group D prices alongside genuine welcome bonuses at the start of the tournament:

18+ only. Gamble responsibly. gamblingcare.ie

Predicted Lineups

USA – Predicted XI (4-2-3-1), Mauricio Pochettino:

Freese; Dest, Richards/Ream, Ream, Robinson A; Adams, McKennie; Weah, Tillman, Pulisic; Balogun/Pepi.

Full confirmed squad (26): GK: Turner (New England Revolution), Freese (NYCFC), Brady (Chicago Fire). DEF: Robinson A (Fulham), Dest (PSV), Richards (Crystal Palace), Ream (Charlotte FC), M. Robinson (FC Cincinnati), Trusty (Celtic), McKenzie (Toulouse), Freeman (Villarreal), Scally (Mönchengladbach), Arfsten (Columbus). MID: Adams (Bournemouth), McKennie (Juventus), Tillman (PSV), Reyna (Mönchengladbach), Berhalter (Vancouver), Roldan (Seattle). FWD: Pulisic (AC Milan, captain), Balogun (Monaco), Pepi (PSV), Weah (Juventus), Wright (Coventry), Aaronson (Leeds), Zendejas (Club América).

Key players:

• Christian Pulisic (AC Milan) – captain, primary creator, set-piece taker
• Malik Tillman (PSV) – dynamic, late-arriving threat from midfield
• Tyler Adams (Bournemouth) – midfield anchor, protects the back four
• Folarin Balogun (Monaco) – most likely starter up front ahead of Pepi

Paraguay – Predicted XI (4-2-3-1), Gustavo Alfaro:

Fernández; Cáceres, Gómez, Alderete, Alonso; Cubas, Bobadilla; Almirón, Enciso, Sanabria; [forward TBC].

Full confirmed squad (26): GK: Fernández (Cerro Porteño), Olveira (Olimpia), Gill (San Lorenzo). DEF: Gómez (Palmeiras, captain), Alderete (Sunderland), Balbuena (Grêmio), Alonso (Atlético Mineiro), Cáceres (Dynamo Moscow), Velázquez (Cerro Porteño), Canale, Espínola. MID: Cubas (Vancouver), Bobadilla (São Paulo), D. Gómez (Brighton), Villasanti (Grêmio), R. Sánchez, Quintana, Viera. FWD: Almirón (Atlanta United), Enciso (Strasbourg), Sanabria (Cremonese), Pitta (RB Bragantino), Arce (Cerro Porteño), Ávalos (Independiente), Á. Romero (Boca Juniors), Sosa (Nottingham Forest).

Key players:

• Miguel Almirón (Atlanta United) – counter-attacking engine, primary danger
• Julio Enciso (Strasbourg) – direct, unpredictable, capable of the unexpected
• Gustavo Gómez (Palmeiras) – captain, aerial dominance, set-piece threat

Injury News: The Richards Question

The single most important team news heading into this fixture.

Chris Richards (Crystal Palace) – ankle injury. Missed the warm-up match against Germany. Currently training with the group but not at full capacity. Status: day-to-day. High chance of featuring but not confirmed.

Market implication: If Richards starts, the American defensive shape is at its most organised. If Ream partners Miles Robinson instead, the right side of the defence is slightly less assured – which is exactly the channel Almirón targets on the counter.

All other key players – Pulisic, Adams, McKennie, Robinson A – are confirmed fit.

La Albirroja: No injury concerns. Full squad available and physically prepared.

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Head to Head

Date	Result	Competition
November 2025	United States 2–1 PAR	International Friendly
1930	United States 3–0 PAR	FIFA World Cup

The November 2025 friendly is the most relevant data point – and it tells the BTTS story perfectly. The hosts won 2–1, both teams scored, Alfaro’s counter-attack delivered exactly as expected. Saturday night at SoFi is likely to follow the same pattern.

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Form Guide

United States: Deep squad, home advantage, Pochettino’s tactical structure. Clean sheet record in recent friendlies is poor – conceded in most matches. FIFA ranking: top 15–18.

PAR: First World Cup since 2010. Physically disciplined, low-block organisation, dangerous in transition. FIFA ranking: approximately 40–50.

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Team History & Legends

USA – The Forgotten 1930 Heroes: Most people know the United States as a developing football nation. Few know they finished third at the very first World Cup in 1930 – beating PAR 3–0 in the semi-finals before losing the third-place match. The modern era began with hosting the 1994 tournament, producing Landon Donovan, Clint Dempsey and Tim Howard. Now Pulisic carries that torch – a generation that landed in AC Milan, Juventus and Bournemouth, competing at European football’s highest level week in week out.

Paraguay – Almirón’s Last Dance: Greatest World Cup moment was 2010 – quarter-finalists, eliminating Japan and pushing Spain to their limits before losing narrowly. Cardozo, Santa Cruz, Gamarra – that generation defined PAR football for a decade. Almirón bridges the eras: 32 years old, Newcastle-proven, now at Atlanta United, arriving at what is almost certainly his final World Cup. He will not go quietly at SoFi.

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Tactical Analysis: The Almirón vs Robinson Duel

Alfaro’s counter-attacking plan is built around one specific channel: Almirón drifting wide and running in behind Antonee Robinson when he pushes forward. Robinson (Fulham) is one of the most adventurous left backs in the Premier League – excellent going forward, exposed defensively when caught high up the pitch.

If Alfaro instructs Almirón to stay wide left and target the space behind Robinson, Pochettino’s side have a structural vulnerability that cannot be coached away mid-match. This is the duel that decides whether the visitors score.

Going the other way: Pulisic’s movement between the lines creates the overloads that Alfaro’s double pivot struggles to manage. When Tillman and McKennie arrive late from midfield, Paraguay face numerical disadvantages in the box. The first goal arrives from that combination. The Almirón counter produces the response.

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What Changed Since 2010

2010: Paraguay’s finest hour. Quarter-finalists. A golden generation at peak level. Almirón is 16 years old.

2026: The same Paraguayan DNA – organised, physical, disciplined – expressed through Almirón’s generation at 32. The structural quality gap to top opposition is wider. But Alfaro’s tactical blueprint narrows it considerably. The November 2025 friendly proved it.

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Our Expert’s Take

“The market has priced this correctly – essentially evens for a home side reflects Paraguay’s genuine threat, not just nominal respect for the underdog. Alfaro has built specifically to frustrate possession-heavy teams and punish them on the counter. Pochettino’s side will dominate, create chances, and eventually score – probably twice. But they will also concede. The November friendly ended 2–1 with both teams scoring, and we expect Saturday to follow the same script. Both Teams to Score at 1.85 is the value play here, not the straight home win at 2.00.”

– ClareGAA Sports Desk

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Where to Watch USA vs PAR in Ireland

Late night alert – this kicks off at 02:00 Irish time on Saturday morning.

• 📺 ITV1 – live, free to air
• 💻 ITVX – free stream
• 📺 RTÉ Sport – may also carry coverage

Worth recording if you cannot stay up. SoFi Stadium with 70,000+ American fans will produce an atmosphere unlike anything in the group stage.

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Score Prediction & Best Markets

Our prediction: USA win 2–1.

Home advantage, superior squad depth and Pulisic’s quality give the Stars and Stripes the win. But the clean sheet is a trap – Almirón’s pace on the counter and the November friendly’s 2–1 scoreline both point toward Paraguay scoring.

Top 3 markets:

1. Both Teams to Score @ ~1.85 – primary value play
2. The Yanks Win @ 1.90–2.00 – home advantage + quality edge
3. Over 2.5 Goals @ ~1.90 – open attacking fixture expected

For every Group D fixture and the full tournament, our World Cup 2026 match tips page covers all the action with daily odds updates.

When Does It Kick Off in Ireland?

02:00 Irish time / 02:00 BST, Saturday June 13 (Friday night US time), SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles.

Where Can I Watch the Match in Ireland?

ITV1 and ITVX – both free. RTÉ Sport may also carry the match. Late night kickoff – worth recording.

What Are the Best Odds for this Game?

Both Teams to Score: ~1.85. USA Win: 1.90–2.00. Los Paraguayos Win: 3.75–4.10. Correct June 10, 2026.

Who Is the Favourite?

The hosts at 48–52% win probability – essentially evens. Alfaro’s side carry 23–24% – a genuine threat, not a formality.

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Our Verdict: The Yanks win but concede. The Both Teams to Score market at 1.85 captures the most likely narrative – home quality prevails but Almirón’s counter-attack delivers at least once. Back the Stars and Stripes to win 2–1, with BTTS Yes as the primary value play in Group D’s opening fixture.