Bologna vs Roma Tips Predictions and Best Odds for Europa League Round of 16 First Leg – March 12 2026

Italian derby in the EL R16 – and this one has layers. Gian Piero Gasperini returns to the Europa League as Roma coach after lifting the trophy with Atalanta in 2024. He knows exactly how to win this competition. Bologna under Vincenzo Italiano have been the surprise package of this season’s Europa League – unbeaten in 9 straight matches with 3 consecutive clean sheets. The Dall’Ara will be a cauldron.

Roma’s January transfer window was aggressive. Donyell Malen arrived from Borussia Dortmund and has immediately delivered – 6 goals in 8 appearances since joining. He gives Gasperini the pace on the counter that Roma lacked in the first half of the season. Paulo Dybala remains the creative heartbeat from set pieces and through balls.

Bologna’s defensive resilience is the story here. Italiano has built a side that concedes very little – their xGA in the Europa League is the lowest of any remaining team. Beukema and Lucumi have formed one of the best centre-back partnerships in Serie A. The question is whether Bologna can break down Gasperini’s tactical structure while maintaining their own discipline.

Kick-off: 18:45 CET, Stadio Dall’Ara, Bologna. Europa League Round of 16, First Leg.

Bologna vs Roma Team News and Predicted Lineups

Bologna: Skorupski; Posch, Beukema, Lucumi, Miranda; Ferguson, Freuler; Orsolini, Odgaard, Ndoye; Castro Out: Aebischer (knee)

Roma: Svilar; Celik, Mancini, Ndicka, Angelino; Cristante, Pellegrini; Dybala, Malen, El Shaarawy; Abraham Out: Paredes (suspended)

📊 Key Stat: Bologna unbeaten in 9 straight EL matches with 3 consecutive clean sheets

Bologna vs Roma Head to Head Record and Stats

Serie A rivals who know each other inside out. Roma demolished Bologna 3-0 at the Olimpico earlier this season – Malen scored twice in that match – before a more cagey 1-1 draw at the Dall’Ara in January. That away draw is telling: Bologna are significantly harder to beat at home. Gasperini set up defensively in January knowing the Europa League draw was imminent and he would face them again here.

The tactical chess match between Italiano and Gasperini is fascinating. Both coaches prefer high pressing but Gasperini will likely instruct Roma to sit deeper and absorb pressure before hitting Bologna on the break through Malen and Dybala. Expect a tight and tactical first leg.

💰 Value Scanner: Bologna vs Roma Odds Comparison

Market	Odds	Implied %	Our True %	Edge
Bologna Win	2.8	35.7%	34%	varies
Draw	3.2	31.2%	34%	check
Roma Win	2.6	38.5%	38%	varies
BTTS Yes	1.75	57.1%	42%	-15% ❌

Value verdict: Draw 3.20 (+3.7%) and Under 2.5 1.85 (+5.9%)

The bookmakers have this as a coin-flip match and they are right. Neither team has a clear edge on paper. The real value lies in the under market – this is a match between two defensively disciplined Italian sides with a combined EL goals conceded average of just 0.7 per match. Draw and Under 2.5 is the sweet spot.

🔀 3 Scenarios: Bologna vs Roma Match Prediction

🟢 BULL – Bologna Dominate (30%): Home crowd lifts the team. Santiago Castro scores early. Bologna 2-0 Roma → Bet: Bologna -1 AH

🟡 BASE – Tactical Balance (45%): Neither overcommits. First-leg caution prevails. Bologna 0-0 Roma → Bet: Under 2.5 @ 1.85

🔴 BEAR – Roma Control (25%): Visitors execute their plan. Clinical away goal. Bologna 0-1 Roma → Bet: Roma + Under 2.5 combo

🏗️ Bologna vs Roma Bet Builder Tips

Leg	Selection	Reasoning
1	Roma or Draw (DC)	Away quality + first-leg caution
2	Under 2.5 Goals	Defensive contest expected
3	Over 1.5 Goals	Both teams have quality in attack
4	Santiago Castro 1+ SOT	Key player consistently tests keeper

Bet Builder Odds: ~4.50 | £10 returns ~£45

⚽ Bologna vs Roma Anytime Goalscorer Picks

Player	Odds	Rating	Reasoning
Santiago Castro	3.5	⭐⭐⭐	3 EL goals, young Argentine striker
Donyell Malen	2.8	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	6 goals in 8 since Jan arrival from Dortmund
Paulo Dybala	4.0	⭐⭐⭐	Set-piece specialist

Malen is the standout pick here despite the low-scoring prediction. If Roma score it will almost certainly come through him – he has been involved in 78% of Roma’s goals since joining. Castro is the danger man for Bologna – the young Argentine has the intelligence to find space between the lines and his 3 EL goals show he thrives on the European stage.

🃏 Bologna vs Roma Cards and Corners Prediction

Cards: Over 3.5 Total Cards @ 1.70 – Combined avg: 4.8 cards per match. Card pick: Over 4.5 cards @ 1.90 – Italian derby, high intensity, tactical fouling

Corners: Over 9.5 Total Corners @ 1.85 – Combined avg: 9.2 per match.

⏱️ Bologna vs Roma Half-Time/Full-Time Prediction

Best HT/FT pick: Draw/Draw @ 6.00 – both defences elite, neither risks in first leg

The 0-0 draw prediction might seem boring but it reflects the tactical reality. Both coaches will prioritise not conceding in the first leg. Gasperini took Atalanta to the Europa League title by winning every knockout first leg to nil – he will apply the same approach here. The goals will come in the second leg at the Olimpico.

🎯 Bologna vs Roma Scorecast and First Goalscorer

Our Scorecast: Malen 1st GS + 0-1 CS @ 18.00 First Goalscorer: Santiago Castro @ 7.00

📱 Bologna vs Roma Same Game Multi / Same Game Parlay

Leg	Selection
1	Under 2.5 Goals
2	Over 7.7 Corners
3	Santiago Castro 1+ SOT
4	Over 2.5 Cards

SGM Odds: ~6.50 | $10 returns ~$65

📊 Bologna vs Roma Accumulator Tips

Leg	Pick	Odds
1	Under 2.5	1.85
2	Roma or Draw DC	~1.50
DOUBLE		~2.78

Gasperini’s European pedigree cannot be overstated. He took Atalanta from Serie A mid-table to Europa League champions in 2024 – the biggest underdog story in the competition’s history. He knows exactly how to set up for two-legged knockout ties and his preference is always to keep things tight in the first leg before going for the kill at home. Bologna’s defensive record is outstanding but they have never faced a coach of Gasperini’s calibre in a European knockout. Bologna vs Roma betting preview – odds and predictions for March 2026. If you are looking for Bologna odds or Roma odds for this Europa League R16 tie then our Value Scanner above breaks down every market. We cover Bologna betting and Roma betting across match result and BTTS and Over/Under and Asian Handicap. For Bologna vs Roma corners prediction see our Cards and Corners section. For Roma vs Bologna odds in the reverse fixture check back after the first leg. Our Bologna vs Roma prediction 2026 March odds preview above analyses 9 expert betting markets – bet builder tips and anytime goalscorer picks and scorecast and same game multi all included.

Bologna vs Roma Correct Score Prediction and Best Bets

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Our Call: Bologna 0-0 Roma

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the predicted score for Bologna vs Roma? Our prediction is 0-0. This is the Europa League Round of 16 first leg on March 12 2026 – full match preview with 9 betting markets analysed above.

What is the best bet for Bologna vs Roma? Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85. See our Value Scanner above for edge calculations on every market.

What time does Bologna vs Roma kick off? Kick-off is 18:45 CET on Thursday March 12 2026. Live on TNT Sports (UK) and Paramount+ (US).