Connacht vs Scarlets Tips Predictions and Best Odds – URC Round 2 Rescheduled March 13 2026

Put it this way – Scarlets have not won a rugby match in Galway since September 2017. That is eight years without a victory on Irish soil in the west. Eight years of travelling across the Irish Sea, playing at what is now Dexcom Stadium, and going home empty-handed.

Connacht at home this season are a different beast. The stadium redevelopment has created an atmosphere that genuinely rattles visiting teams. Stuart Lancaster’s side just beat league leaders Glasgow 15-10 in Round 12 – a result that shook the entire URC table. They are 10th on 25 points and pushing hard for a top-8 finish. Friday night under the Galway lights is their territory.

Scarlets sit 15th with 16 points and have lost four straight away from Llanelli. Dwayne Peel’s squad have occasional flashes of individual class – Costelow at fly-half and Rogers on the wing – but the collective effort has been nowhere near good enough for most of this campaign.

Friday March 13 2026 – 20:45 GMT (22:45 Kyiv) – Dexcom Stadium, Galway

Connacht’s Secret Weapon – The Returning Ireland Stars

Cian Prendergast and Bundee Aki are back from the Six Nations. That sentence alone should terrify Scarlets. Prendergast at blindside is among the most explosive carriers in the URC – his offloading in traffic creates chaos that structured defences cannot handle. Aki brings controlled aggression and a voice that organises everything around him.

Josh Ioane at fly-half controls the tempo. Caolin Blade at nine gives them a snappy service. Mack Hansen on the wing is the match-winner – his counter-attacking instincts turn broken play into tries that other players would not even attempt.

For Scarlets the resistance has to come from their pack. Josh MacLeod captains the side and brings genuine breakdown presence. Ryan Elias is a Lions hooker whose lineout throwing is their most reliable possession source. But the rest of the forward pack lacks the grunt to compete with a fired-up Connacht side in front of their own fans.

The Numbers That Matter

Connacht home URC matches this season average 44.6 combined points. That is comfortably above the 40.5 line the bookmakers have set. Scarlets away matches average 47.2 combined points – but most of those are because Scarlets concede so heavily on the road.

The try-scoring data reinforces the picture. Connacht score 3+ tries in 5 of their last 7 home URC wins. Scarlets have conceded 3+ tries in 6 of their last 8 away URC defeats. When you put those two stats together the handicap and total points markets become very attractive.

Where to Put Your Money

Market	Odds	The Case
Connacht Win	1.30	Dead cert but useless as a single. Parlay leg only
Connacht -7.5	1.75	Best bet – they cover this in most home wins
Over 40.5 Total	1.85	Strong – both teams contribute to high totals
Hansen Anytime Try	1.90	Short but justified – he scores at home regularly
Rogers Anytime Try	3.50	Scarlets’ best weapon gets space when they go wide

Connacht -7.5 at 1.75 is the pick. They have covered this spread in 4 of their last 6 home URC victories. Scarlets lack the defensive steel to keep it close and their road record is among the worst in the competition.

The Verdict

This is a mismatch. Connacht at home with Prendergast and Aki back are a different animal to the team that lost to Leinster 23-34 a few weeks ago. Scarlets will compete for a half – MacLeod and Elias will keep them in it through set-piece ball – but the dam breaks after 55 minutes.

Our Call: Connacht 31-15 Scarlets

Hansen scores. Prendergast scores. Connacht secure the bonus point. Scarlets get a consolation through Rogers in the final quarter but it flatters them. Connacht move to 30 points and the top-8 conversation gets serious.

Best Bet: Connacht -7.5 @ 1.75 Value Play: Over 40.5 @ 1.85

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the predicted score for Connacht vs Scarlets? Our prediction is Connacht 31-15 Scarlets. Connacht are dominant at Dexcom Stadium and Scarlets have not won in Galway since 2017.

What is the best bet for Connacht vs Scarlets? Connacht -7.5 at 1.75. The home side cover this spread in most home victories.

When does Connacht vs Scarlets kick off? Friday March 13 2026 at 20:45 GMT (22:45 Kyiv) at Dexcom Stadium.