Notts County vs Newport County Prediction, Odds & Tips | League Two | April 6, 2026

Opta gives Notts County a 69% chance of winning Monday’s League Two clash at Meadow Lane. That is the highest win probability on the entire fixture list today. Newport arrive one point outside the relegation zone with five games left and have lost 12 of their 20 away matches this season. The numbers point one way.

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Match Preview

Notts County sit fourth on 73 points, level with Cambridge in third and nine clear of the first team outside the play-off places. They lost their last match 2-1 at Salford which makes Monday a bounce-back game in front of their own supporters. At Meadow Lane this season Notts have won 12, drawn three and lost five in 20 league games, a home record strong enough to keep them firmly in the promotion picture.

Newport come here in genuine danger. Twenty-second place, 34 points, one point above the drop with five matches remaining. They lost 2-0 to Crawley in their last outing and have won just two of their last six league games. Away from home the picture is worse: five wins, three draws and 12 losses on the road this season. A team that cannot win away from home has no margin for error at this point in the season.

The head-to-head record adds another layer. Notts have not lost to Newport in League Two in five straight meetings, scoring nine and conceding two across those games. Newport’s last league win against Notts came in February 2019. The last meeting this season ended 1-1 in August at Rodney Parade, Garner levelling in the 49th minute after Jones had scored from the spot in the 65th. On neutral ground that result flattered Newport. At Meadow Lane with a play-off spot at stake it is a different calculation entirely.

Alassana Jatta and Matthew Dennis share the top-scoring duties for Notts with 14 goals each, fourth highest in League Two, and both have scored the opening goal of the match five times this season. Opta notes Jatta has scored in 36% of Notts League Two games this season, and Notts have won their last two games when Jatta scores. Dennis has scored in 40% of Notts home games. Two players with that kind of output against a Newport side whose top scorers – Spellman, Opoku and Baker-Richardson – have combined for just 14 goals all season.

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Team News

Jatta and Dennis are both expected to lead Notts County’s attack. No significant absences reported.

Newport’s attacking options are limited. Spellman, Opoku and Baker-Richardson carry the goalscoring burden for a side low on confidence after back-to-back defeats.

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Our Prediction: Notts County 2-0 Newport County

Notts are 69% favourites at home, unbeaten in five straight against Newport, and have two of the most productive strike partnerships in League Two. Newport are one point from the relegation zone and have lost 12 away games this season. The prediction here needs no clever angle. Notts win and keep the pressure on Cambridge.

Tip: Notts County to Win to Nil. Newport have scored just 14 away goals all season across 20 games. Notts at home with Jatta and Dennis in this form is too much for a side already beaten 2-0 last time out.

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